“Woe to the land whose king is a child and whose leaders are already drunk in the morning. Happy the land whose king is a nobleman, and whose leaders work hard before they feast and drink, and then only to strengthen themselves for the tasks ahead”. (Eccl 10: 16-17)


"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat


Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput






Friday, September 14, 2012

Bonds Might Have Topped Out, for Good

Today's price action in the long bond is highly suggesting that the multi-decade bull market in US bonds is over. The inflationary impact off three successive experiments in Quantitative Easing has seemed to have finally gotten the attention of that endangered species once known as the bond vigilante. Remember, this latest round of QE is not targetting US Treasuries but rather agency debt. That removes a major source of demand.

With the US Dollar falling apart thanks to a deliberate attempt by the Fed to debauch it, buyers, particularly foreign buyers, are going to demand higher rates to compensate them for the currency risk.

either way, today is shaping up to be a big day for the future of long term interest rates.