“Woe to the land whose king is a child and whose leaders are already drunk in the morning. Happy the land whose king is a nobleman, and whose leaders work hard before they feast and drink, and then only to strengthen themselves for the tasks ahead”. (Eccl 10: 16-17)


"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat


Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput






Monday, January 23, 2012

Gold Chart and comments

Gold has made it into a formidable resistance level near $1680 which has served to bring out some heavy selling, just as expected seeing that a breach of this defensive line by the bulls will set the market for a run to $1700 and higher. Gold bears can read the charts just as we can and understand what will bring in the momentum buyers if they fail to hold it here.

If the recent price advance falters here at this critical zone, then we will see a setback towards $1650 - $1645 initially followed by a bit deeper drop to $1620 or so if the dip buyers are a bit sluggish in making their appearance.

On the topside, a push through $1700 sets this market on a course to challenge $1720 - $1725, above which lies much stronger resistance just above $1750, a level which I might add, needs to be taken out to accelerate the recent move higher.



Risk trades continued today with the Dollar seeing some selling pressure as the Euro moved further away from its recent 52 week low. The Dollar is sitting on top of some important chart support which coincides with both the 50 day moving average and a horizontal support level. I would not be surprised to see it bounce higher from here. If it does not, then we could see it drop down to 79 very swiftly. Bonds would probably drop off rather sharply also as it would indicate another wave of money flows into the risk trades and away from the safe haven "risk aversion" dollar.




That generated commodity-wide buying as the CCI (Continuous Commodity Index was up nearly 1.4% today. It is closing in on some important overhead chart resistance so we will see if the bulls can continue to take it higher or if the urge to snatch some money off the table strikes first.




Even natural gas put in a very strong rally off its 52 week low made early in the session on the news of cutbacks in production by Chesapeake.

The natural gas market may have bottomed today based on the very bullish chart pattern. This market however has had a habit of putting in some strong moves higher only to then resume a downtrend when the field resumes focusing on the enormous supply picture once the short covering rally is over. With the huge amounts of shale gas being produced, it is going to take other suppliers to follow the lead of Chesapeake if this is going to be a definitive bottom. That being said, natural gas is incredibly cheap. Consumers are most definitely enjoying this even if the industry as a whole is not!



Silver runs right into a Resistance Zone and then halts

Just as if on clue, Silver bulls came out of the gate bucking high and hard but were unable to throw the bears who have dug in at the exact spot on the chart which says they should.

Take a look at this chart which I posted last week and which is still applicable after today's trading session. Notice how silver shot up throw that "formidable resistance zone" near $32.50 but then faded to close almost right on the line instead of solidly above it.



Still, the bears dodged that bullet only by the slimmest of margins as the market put in a strong close to end the session, although it has retreated a bit this afternoon.

Tomorrow's session is now set up to be an important near term juncture for this market. If the bulls can take out today's high and hold the market above $32.50, this thing has a real shot at making a quick run at $35. If they hesistate here, we could see it set back about $1.00 or so to see if it can uncover some good quality dip buying.

Support should also emerge down near $30.95.