“Woe to the land whose king is a child and whose leaders are already drunk in the morning. Happy the land whose king is a nobleman, and whose leaders work hard before they feast and drink, and then only to strengthen themselves for the tasks ahead”. (Eccl 10: 16-17)

"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput

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Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Alas, Christmas has now come and gone for another year. The hustle and bustle of the season begins to wind down, the wrappings, bows and pretty paper now being consigned to the trash bin. Soon the lights will be coming down and the trees discarded for mulch or put back into the basement or attics. The children will be out making merry with their new toys and games. These things seem as constant as the North star for those of us who celebrate this wondrous holiday.

Sadly, as constant as the above, so too it seems is the desire of political leaders to debauch or debase their own currencies. Witness the Japanese Yen as it continues to plummet following the path desired by the new political leadership. The point is not being lost on gold as it continues to hover near record highs when priced in terms of that currency.

Incidentally, unleaded gasoline is threatening a breach of overhead resistance at the top of its trading range near the $2.81 level. Distillate strength is keeping a very firm bid in the liquid energy markets despite the continued threat of a so-called 'fiscal cliff' breakdown.

Crude oil is flirting with a band of heavy resistance between 90.30 - 90.60. Above that, it can be expected to see strong selling pressure emerging if it approaches the $93 level.

Cold weather has given heating oil a boost and it too is up near the top of its trading range. These energy markets are worth keeping an eye on as any bona fide breakout will tend to give gold a boost to the upside as well.

Well, at least we got a brief respite from the high gasoline prices. We'll see how long this upside push might last in the liquid energies.

Sinking grains today are working to undercut strength in silver which had been following copper to the upside but began wilting as the soybean complex, along with wheat, lead the entire grain complex lower. Silver still likes to see soybeans moving higher as it tends to feed into an inflationary bias. When you get the grains moving higher, along with copper and the other base metals, it is almost impossible to prevent the grey metal from moving higher along with them.


  1. Fantastic post as usual Dan. I look forward to reading your blog whenever you have new posts. I read a lot of other blogs covering the economy, commodities, trading, etc. and yours by far is better in my opinion. Keep up the great work!

  2. Hi Dan.
    Technical damage on gold seems to be important.
    I guess it was the goal of the manipulators : raid and shoot it down during christmas, when the market is empty of buyers.
    But what will be the result?
    Will it cascade into a downward spiral?
    Look at Gold priced in Euros.
    First chart shows 3 months candles. Technically the two last ones don't look good, with the last red engulfing the previous green marubozu.

    On a monthly basis, the MACD is coming in contact with its support, and we broke ema15, to reach ma20.


    It doesn't look very strong at all. I hope we end up december on higher prices.


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